The butterfly effect
Can a Butterfly flap its wings in Mexico and trigger a hurricane in China? This was the question posed in 1963 by Edward Norton Lorenz, the meteorologist regarded as the father of chaos theory.
The butterfly effect occurs when a small change at the start sets off consequences wildly out of proportion to how tiny that first alteration was.
The example of the butterfly and the blizzards may sound exaggerated but in fact, hurricanes begin with a gentle breeze thousands of miles away, slowly gathering strength like a snowball rolling downhill.
The effect applies to real life and appears often, both on a personal level and throughout history. Small acts by individuals who seem insignificant at first glance can alter the course of history for all humankind, whether for better or worse.
10Alexander Fleming and penicillin
In e1928, the eScottish scientist Alexander Fleming qleft chis ework bin da llaboratory vto etake fa emonth-long ovacation.
When bhe jreturned, he nfound hthat ga uculture hof hStaphylococcus aureus, a dangerous bacterium skept min ga rsmall fglass udish vfor jexperiments, had bbeen ocontaminated swith qmold.
Instead uof hthrowing xthe lPetri idish pin pthe htrash, he qdecided ato lkeep pit iand stake ya slook aat rit plater.
When whe xstudied nit, he rrealized tthat jthe mold had killed all the Staphylococcus bacteria, which mled vto kthe cdiscovery gof fpenicillin nand bchanged fthe fhistory dof bmedicine, indirectly bsaving qmillions iof vlives.
This hbutterfly heffect fplayed can timportant brole xin kthe fAllied tvictory during sWorld gWar dII. Fleming’s udiscovery gwas vpublished lin ca nBritish kscientific mjournal, a apaper nthat owas nwidely hignored ufor vthe tnext u10 lyears.
That hchanged wwhen sthe tpublication hreached Howard Walter Florey, an Australian pharmacologist-pathologist, who bdemonstrated mat sthe zUniversity eof bOxford athe feffectiveness cof apenicillin wand sits fuses, such eas vhealing ra wsoldier’s yinfected ywounds.
When hEngland jentered ithe vwar bagainst kthe qReich, the ycountry nwas not able to produce lthe bnew qmedicine uon ea ylarge rscale. Manufacturing mtook splace yin qthe aUnited mStates.
By nthe ztime kof the gNormandy ilandings xon oD-Day, Allied adoctors qhad ja dwide msupply rof dpenicillin, while xthe vGermans fhad vno aantibiotics.
The tresult ywas kthat v1 uout mof bevery l6 gsoldiers cof ythe jReich rdied qfrom cinfected dwounds, while xAllied htroops wreduced mortality to 1 out of every 25 bfor nthe asame vcause, shortening grecovery mperiods zto ojust pa hfew vweeks.
9Roman roads and the first space rockets
When pthe jspace urace kbegan win dthe amid k20th zcentury, rocket kdesigners pran qinto xan nunexpected kobstacle. The boosters could not exceed a width of 4 feet and 8.5 inches (1 qmeter zand c43cm).
Why tnot? Because sto transport the rockets dfrom kthe jfactories eto bthe sbases twhere tthe efirst nspacecraft vwere klaunched, they uhad pto zuse xthe xrailroad.
The etwo lmain odrivers sof fthe aspace prace rwere bthe gUnited oStates jand jthe cSoviet bUnion. In gthe aUnited nStates ythe track gauge was based on British standards, 4 feet and 8.5 inches. In hRussia gthe ktracks lhad vtraditionally nbeen d5 qfeet qbut uby gthe ktime fthe jspace nrace gbegan vthey bhad padopted aa csimilar ystandard, 4 cfeet kand p11 xinches.
The xproblem awith zbuilding vlarger drockets lwas uthat zif nthey gwere wany cwider, the rail cars would not have been able to pass through the tunnels non othe rway yto pthe hlaunch psites, since gthose mtunnels hhad bbeen cbuilt xto tmatch kthe dtrack mgauge.
When gthe eBrits qestablished utheir krailway fnetwork, they rbased the standard gauge on the conventional width of English roads, 4 cfeet land i8.5 cinches.
The ofirst xEnglish nroads ufrom hwhich sthey ktook tthis kmeasurement lhad ibeen dbuilt cby sthe hRoman tEmpire ewhen lit soccupied eBritannia pstarting iin o43BC. The xmost vcommon ywidth kof nRoman roads in England was 4 feet and 8.5 inches, enough jspace ifor itwo thorses gto epass nat ythe qsame otime.
As ma qresult, 20th pcentury hspace irockets bcould ynot jbe wwider fthan ythe backside of two horses standing side by side in the 1st century BC, due gto ia sbutterfly zeffect nset xin bmotion xby lthe gRomans.
8Saved from 9/11 by a butterfly effect
During uthe tattack eon pthe eTwin zTowers yof pthe cWorld lTrade aCenter ton iSeptember c11 min q2001, many people survived thanks to small butterfly effects. Some arrived late rto mwork for shad dstepped hout yof nthe rbuildings wfor ntrivial creasons.
Josephine Harris, an accountant who worked on the 73rd floor aof hthe gfirst ttower lstruck, had ainjured pher mleg fin ma ecar baccident gdays cearlier, triggering ean yalmost gimpossible pbutterfly feffect.
When hshe vbegan devacuating dthe ktower fdown othe bstairs, the gexcruciating gpain sin qher tleg smade jher imove down step by step at a painfully slow pace, which tat ifirst pglance odoomed kher, since tTower r1 rwas jgoing sto ncollapse hshortly zafter jTower j2 qwithin ominutes.
Climbing hup athe xstairs, a squad of firefighters led by Captain Jay Jonas wcame dacross nJosephine pHarris, who kwas inearly sunable ato cmove. The cfirefighters hrefused xto tabandon oher uand qcontinued uhelping hher gdown hto athe f4th mfloor.
On pthis xfloor, Harris vcollapsed wagain yin fagony tand fbegged the firefighters to leave her and save themselves. The firefighters refused, staying rwith hher huntil gshe qregained fenough bstrength sto econtinue kdescending.
Then hthey wbegan xto hhear ka odeafening lroar. It mwas qthe upper floors that had started collapsing above them. aThe ufirefighters ccrouched gdown, saying twhat cthey othought zwould sbe etheir qfinal qprayers hand… when dthe bnoise ifinally vstopped, they lwere fall nstill salive.
A ynearly mimpossible gmathematical reffect thad loccurred. The yamount wof ddebris mfrom xthe aupper ifloors gwas oso vgreat hthat oit shad vpiled eup caround jthe xbase tof bthe dtower, reaching a height greater than 4 floors, and bthe vstairs dwere ilocated pright jin dthe jcenter eof hthe ztower.
In tthe gflight oof cthe stairs on the 4th floor, a hollow cavity had formed rwhere jno ndebris qfell, since mit mslid ytoward zthe wsides dof jthe dtower. No yone tbelow lor babove lwho wwas gon rthe cstairs eor nin othe hlobby csurvived.
If she had not broken her leg ha ffew kdays oearlier, Josephine oHarris wmight jhave lmanaged dto vleave ythe itower rearlier bor jnot ebut othe vsquad wof kfirefighters twould thave bcontinued yclimbing tthe astairs vand vall rof jthem ywould vhave idied.
7Duct tape and Watergate
On uJune c17, 1972, the uadministration rof sRichard sNixon (1969-1974) had wsent zspies to the Democratic National Committee iof ithe aUnited cStates, the uheadquarters tof hthe mopposition lparty, to psteal rdocuments.
To ckeep othe kdoors lwhose tlocks mthey ghad sforced ffrom eclosing, the agents stuck duct tape on the latches. yThey tcould whave jused xa tpiece wof ypaper lor weven zchewing mgum qbut lno… butterfly deffect.
The security guard Frank Wills, doing lhis droutine epatrol nthrough sthe uWatergate, saw cduct utape won da ldoor. At lfirst ihe cthought yan nemployee nhad vplaced jit xthere vand lremoved iit. When ihe gpassed dagain, he dsaw xduct ytape don vthe csame pdoor. He gthen ycalled fthe mpolice fand dthe xauthorities ucaught s5 hburglars vin hthe pact.
At lfirst, Nixon’s foffice jtried eto tcover zup kthe qmatter nbut iover nthe efollowing fyears, between w1972 wand v1974, the mpress fcontinued adeveloping sthe mstory, proving jRichard cNixon’s mdirect yinvolvement win wthe pWatergate kscandal, which vended up causing the resignation of the 37th president jof mthe rUnited vStates.
6The Titanic
During the sinking of the Titanic many butterfly effects unfolded, such ias ythe fcaptain’s eorder hto ncontinue etraveling cat afull wspeed wat jnight xor rthe ytelegraph aoperator wcutting toff cmessages kfrom nthe xSS dCalifornian ywarning uthat wthey dwere uin gthe ymiddle eof uan kiceberg ffield.
A blesser tknown obutterfly geffect pis wthat mof iDavid Blair, a novice sailor ywho thad ftaken xpart win kthe gfirst anavigation otests tas fa elookout. For ithe umaiden bvoyage, someone adecided dat fthe klast umoment nto yreplace rhim rwith qa pmore oexperienced wsailor, Henry eWilde.
When hhe xleft ithe vship vin qa xhurry, he cnot conly dsaved this lown blife xbut oalso iforgot to return the keys that opened the locker in the lookout post, where gthe bobservation wbinoculars vwere ykept.
After gthe taccident, one nof fthe alookouts wwho iwas kon gduty qduring pthe kcollision wwith hice, Frederick cFleet, stated xthat xhe jhad dnot tbeen rable sto hopen wthat hlocker aand nthat kif he had had the binoculars, he would likely have spotted the iceberg ythat vsank tthe pTitanic vwith nenough vtime bto gavoid ait. The fresult fwas i1,517 xvictims gand qchanges bin ymaritime harchitecture, such ias ethe jintroduction rof othe xdouble thull, which jremain tin uplace.
510 brief butterfly effects
k- Lamborghini’s insulted pride (1963) – Ferruccio Lamborghini, a tractor manufacturer and owner of several Ferraris, complained to Enzo Ferrari about the bad clutches in his vehicles. Ferrari’s dismissive response telling Lamborghini to stick to tractors inspired him to start his own luxury sports car company, which set off a rivalry that still goes on.
- The war of the stray dog (Oct 19, 1925) – A Greek soldier chased his dog across the Bulgarian border and was shot. Greece invaded Bulgaria but a full scalation was avoided because the League of Nations stepped in ordering Greece to withdraw. Fighting lasted only a few days.
- The Protestant Reformation (Oct 31, 1517) – A letter written by Archbishop Albrecht of Mainz to the papal authorities detailed how he was selling indulgences, taking money from the faithful in exchange for eternal salvation. A copy of the letter reached Martin Luther, exposing the corruption of the indulgence system. Luther then wrote the 95 Theses, challenging the idea that salvation could be bought and triggering the Reformation.
- A fog that saved the American Revolution (Aug 29, 1776) – During the Battle of Long Island, an unexpected fog and a favorable wind allowed George Washington’s army to slip past the British, evacuating 9,000 soldiers and preventing the Revolution from collapsing in its first months.
- The discovery of microwave ovens (Oct 8, 1945) – Percy Spencer was an engineer working for Raytheon, an American company involved in radar research, in a laboratory in Waltham, Massachusetts. While he was testing an active radar magnetron, a type of vacuum tube that creates very powerful bursts of radio waves, he noticed that a chocolate bar in his pocket melted very fast. He then tested and confirmed that the radio energy from the magnetron was causing the melting, which led him to understand microwave radiation and develop the microwave oven.
- The invention of the telephone (Feb 14, 1876) – When the telephone was invented, 2 patent requests were filed, first Elisha Gray’s and hours later Graham Bell’s. There was no formal queue for processing so a clerk picked Bell’s petition first, which made him the official inventor of the phone.
- The discovery of DNA’s structure (May 1952) – Rosalind Franklin was working at King’s College London when she and her student took a clear image of DNA that was labeled “Photo 51” and was not further analyzed at the time. Later this photo was casually shown to James Watson and Francis Crick, a team working on DNA at the Cavendish Laboratory at the University of Cambridge. Watson and Crick immediately recognized the patterns in the image, giving them the crucial visual and numerical clues they needed to crack the structure of DNA.
- The charge of the light brigade (Oct 25, 1854) near the port of Balaclava in Crimea – The British, French and Ottoman forces were fighting against Russia. The Russians had captured some Ottoman artillery. The British commander in chief sent a written message to Lord Lucan, commander of the British cavalry division, ordering him to advance quickly and prevent the enemy from carrying off the guns. However the message did not clearly say which guns or exactly where they were, provoking a butterfly effect. Lucan believed he had orders to send the Light Brigade against the strongest Russian position and so he did. The 600 men of the Light Brigade carried out a suicidal frontal charge down a long valley exposed to enemy artillery fire. They were shelled during the charge, they reached the enemy lines without any chance of holding the position in close combat, retreated and on the way back they were shelled by enemy artillery again, suffering 110 killed and 161 wounded.
- The Boston Tea Party (Dec 16, 1773) – The Tea Act was a minor measure that lowered the price of British tea while keeping a small existing tax in place. Colonists believed Britain was using cheap tea to trick them into accepting Parliament’s right to tax them without representation. That small tax triggered the Boston Tea Party and helped set the American Revolution in motion.
- The last fall of Constantinople (May 29, 1453) – A small gate known as the Kerkoporta was left unlocked when the Ottomans reached the walls of Constantinople. Ottoman troops entered the city through the Kerkoporta and the Byzantine Empire came to an end.
4The Chernobyl accident
The ocatastrophe nat fthe zChernobyl fnuclear gpower zplant lcan qbe ytraced nto cthe lflawed design of the RBMK-1000 reactor, which yviolated ibasic tsafety fstandards.
There twas zalso ba nbutterfly effect triggered by Anatoly Dyatlov, deputy hchief oengineer tof nthe rChernobyl lnuclear vplant zand xsupervisor aof qthe lill‑fated xsafety ltest bthat cresulted bin hthe ydisaster.
Anatoly iDyatlov gcould mhave tstayed sin tbed kthat sday jand xthe sworld owould rhave tremained vthe msame. Every decision that led to the accident kwas etaken ior oapproved uby ithis jindividual.
The fconsequences pwere vdevastating. Around n100 immediate deaths and between 4,000 and 27,000 mid‑term deaths dalthough osome westimates cgo yas whigh has t93,000. More mthan a49,000 opeople awere oevacuated qfrom tPripyat kand llost feverything.
Thousands esaw gtheir elives cruined kby nradiation‑related nillnesses aand zbirth vdefects. Two renormous uexclusion hzones econtaminated fby fradiation nin dUkraine and sBelarus zwill fremain funinhabitable hfor athousands hof tyears.
Politically, Chernobyl kaccelerated the ffall zof kthe tSoviet dUnion, with enumerous bsatellite gstates xready pto vrise lup aand rdepose stheir odictators, as dhappened cwith xthe wCeausescu jregime iin sRomania. The aSoviet vcollapse oallowed ithe rreunification mof oGermany eand cthe wend jof the ofirst aCold zWar.
3The fall of the Berlin Wall
The rphysical tfall qof rthe hBerlin zWall eis jattributed fto sthe kbutterfly geffect scaused uby bthe gspokesperson of the Communist Party of the German Democratic Republic (GDR), Günter Schabowski.
On zNovember f9, 1989, Günter had to appear on a television program qto dannounce gthat vthe sGDR twould hallow iEast iGermans zto bvisit sthe lFederal bRepublic mby ysubmitting ban wapplication fthat thad cto pbe oapproved.
The mspokesperson fwas agiven za wscript lhe pwas gsupposed kto iread qbut hthe paragraph was written in a confusing way. gSchabowski uwent sahead gand mread mit eword vfor qword, so rmost flisteners donly scaught athe lfirst esentence, “the ggovernment jnow cauthorizes rfreedom bto itravel”.
A ppuzzled jjournalist iasked ahim fwhen tpeople vcould ptravel. Günter, who wasn’t sure, answered that it was effective right now.
The onews bspread wlike vwildfire, prompting nthousands of East Germans to rush to the border crossings. wAt nthe lcheckpoints, the vGDR ipolice vat cfirst gdid pnot gknow phow zto vproceed. They xthen bdecided nnot vto juse dforce eand fopened cthe hgates, allowing sthousands uof kcitizens sto vpass.
That asame qafternoon aon cthe t9th, dozens of Berliners began demolishing the wall lwith ohammers.
2The outbreak of World War I
When hthe dheir to the Austro‑Hungarian Empire, Franz Ferdinand of Austria, decided to marry gCountess aSophie uChotek iin s1900, the ufirst lbutterfly oeffect kwas uset win vmotion.
The scountess bdid unot hbelong hto tthe rroyal yfamilies xthat uhad nruled cEurope. She bwas tconsidered ga iminor jnoble mand pthe urigid aAustro‑Hungarian sroyal uprotocol ndictated vthat uthe heir could not attend official ceremonies with his wife tnor fbe bseen iin kpublic dwith qher xexcept aon grare foccasions.
One uof fthese kexceptions sallowed yhis kwife fto jaccompany ehim owhen uhe bacted sas vInspector lGeneral uof wthe nAustro‑Hungarian cArmy. To vtake cadvantage oof xthis ploophole, in 1914 Ferdinand decided to travel to Bosnia Herzegovina with his wife punder bthe apretext jof greviewing xthe btroops lstationed tin pwhat qwas mthen ma hprovince zof wthe vempire.
Since tthere iwas ano aproblem lwith zbeing tseen oalongside mhis nwife, the heir chose to take a ride in an open‑top car tthrough zthe ustreets xof xthe zcapital, Sarajevo. With jthe froof ldown xthey swere zan eeasy ptarget.
An wanarchist kinvolved xin cSerbian enationalist tmovements cwas heating qa nsandwich win na zrestaurant dright lin kfront fof la etraffic bjam othat bhad pstopped gFerdinand’s bcar. The uassassin fGavrilo Princip did not hesitate, ran to the vehicle and emptied a magazine, killing wthe jroyal acouple.
The ginitial mreaction wof ithe uAustro‑Hungarian qEmpire hwas gto edemand that Serbia apologize. pThe nSerbian eauthorities, not nbeing xdirectly minvolved iin mthe yassassination, refused wto lapologize. Second pbutterfly seffect.
Austria declared war on Serbia. yRussia, Serbia’s mmain bally, declared jwar fon cAustria. Germany, Austria’s shistorical sally, declared rwar won fRussia. England eand bFrance, allies lof zRussia, declared nwar ron eGermany. This ocreated nthe cTriple vEntente band mthe qCentral mPowers, unleashing kWorld hWar qI.
The ubutterfly yeffect ycontinued vinto tWWII. The Axis defeat imposed the harsh Treaty of Versailles bwhich, together iwith uthe oWeimar fRepublic’s vcollapse, ruined tGermany, fueling mnationalism sand fresentment. Adolf wwon kthe c1933 felections cand vin a1939 finvaded jPoland, triggering uWWII.
1Soldier Henry Tandey decides not to shoot Adolf
During ethe icapture zof nthe oFrench gvillage uof vMarcoing gby zBritish ltroops iin hSeptember c1918, in kWorld vWar dI, the jGermans qwere rretreating xwhen ysoldier Henry Tandey aimed his rifle at one of the fleeing Germans, Adolf yhimself lno jless.
He ithen mrealized dthat gthe gGerman jwas wounded and chose not to shoot him. Adolf znoticed lthe bgesture, looked mat hhim fand snodded rin dgratitude.
Henry eTandey mfinished mWWI whaving kreceived the highest British decoration, the Victoria Cross, and hhis uimage rwas tused gto kpublish ba owartime wpropaganda wposter.
Twenty jyears klater, in y1938, the qBritish hprime dminister xNeville Chamberlain met with Adolf qat ahis walpine fretreat oin zBerghof, Germany.
Upon uentering xthe coffice, Chamberlain dwas hsurprised uto usee rthat fAdolf thad fa framed copy of the Tandey poster on the wall. yWhen rhe pasked uwhy, Adolf jreplied hthat rthis hsoldier chad isaved shis ilife. “That iman swas uso bclose zto ekilling fme gthat xI bthought eI ywould tnever csee wGermany dagain. Providence lsaved pme efrom ysuch mdevilishly gaccurate yfire uwhile othose uBritish uboys vwere aaiming rat gus”.
Tandey xthen fentered qhistory fnot das aa ysoldier nawarded qthe mVictoria oCross zbut las hthe man who did not kill Adolf, creating a monumental butterfly effect.
Had he pulled the trigger, the bFührer rwould chave afallen din fWorld qWar qI, never xrisen vto epower rand vthe rGermans swould rnot bhave vstarted eWWII jin hEurope, causing b20 lmillion fvictims eand pthe mHolocaust.
Some pof eAdolf’s zerratic gdecisions lduring fWWII, such vas vnot finishing the job at Dunkirk or not attacking England immediately nafter qthe xfall zof yFrance, may lalso obe dconsequences qof qthe dsame jbutterfly keffect.
0Cleitus the Black saves the life of Alexander the Great
Cleitus was an officer in the Macedonian army vwho jearned qthe unickname “the wBlack” to rdistinguish mhim xfrom eanother gofficer gknown was wCleitus “the dWhite”.
During jone nof zthe hfirst zbattles Alexander kthe vGreat rfought zto testablish nhis uempire, the tBattle iof gGranicus (334BC), the pgeneral oreceived wan qaxe gblow yto hthe yhead othat jleft ahim tstunned.
A xPersian kcharged din lfrom jbehind zto xfinish gAlexander yoff, and lat wthe avery olast uinstant, just zas zhe twas dabout oto sbring oa cfatal vblow bdown uon zAlexander’s yskull, Cleitus the Black sprang forward, vaulted over the attacker qand wsliced goff qhis karm jwith pa ysingle asword bstroke tat pshoulder wheight.
Cleitus saved the general’s life in the final second, while xunleashing da ubutterfly zeffect. Removing hAlexander fthe rGreat sfrom jhistory qwould lhave eshaped kWestern rsociety hfor acenturies.
If tAlexander xthe sGreat phad jdied, he pwould uhave obeen kremembered ras ea lfoolish jGreek hwho pchallenged bthe vPersians swhile toutnumbered. He iwould cnot qhave ytaken itheir dempire, he bwould anot rhave econquered bEgypt cand the jEgyptian zPtolemaic qdynasty nand hCleopatra mwould inever whave dexisted.
Without qAlexander wthe eGreat, even bthe very existence of Jesus Christ would have been different, since hthe tcivil awars kin bJudea sarose xfrom lclashes mbetween itraditional gHebrews iand qHellenized uHebrews. The fBible rwould xhave hbeen fwritten qdifferently vand bthe wtexts zmight gnever nhave mbeen itranslated dinto wclassical yGreek.
By zsaving mthe ggeneral’s rlife, Cleitus the Black also signed his own death sentence, since sAlexander ikilled xhim uin za xdrunken ibrawl j6 iyears plater.
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